The starting principle
Your expected return is an assumption, not a forecast. Runaway applies the parameters you choose and shows their possible consequences over time.
Build the starting point
The plan brings together the assets, accounts, currencies, cost basis, contributions, income, spending, life events, and retirement settings entered by the user.
Project year by year
The deterministic projection grows each asset, adds contributions, applies scheduled flows, indexes spending to inflation, and funds withdrawals through the selected horizon.
Apply simplified taxation
Withdrawals are estimated from tax residence, account type, and representative schedules for France, Canada, and the United States. The rules are intentionally simplified.
Measure uncertainty
Monte Carlo tests up to 5,000 market futures by varying returns through assumptions for volatility, correlation, distribution tails, and crash regimes.
Modern, multi-currency wealth
Runaway can bring together stocks, ETFs, cryptocurrencies, cash, custom assets, and real estate. Holdings can be denominated in USD, CAD, EUR, or GBP and consolidated into the plan currency.
Two complementary views
Deterministic projection
One central, readable, and reproducible path based on the selected assumptions. It makes the effect of a change easy to understand.
Monte Carlo simulation
A distribution of possible paths designed to show dispersion and sequence risk. The success rate is the share of paths that fund the full horizon.
Assumptions and sources
- Expected returns are selected by the user; they are not Runaway forecasts.
- Volatility, correlation, and crash-sensitivity assumptions are documented defaults that can be overridden per holding.
- Historical mode uses, among other inputs, S&P 500 and US Treasury total returns published by Aswath Damodaran and US CPI-U inflation.
- Embedded tax schedules are dated 2026 and rely on public French, Canadian, and US sources.
What the model cannot know
- Actual returns, inflation, exchange rates, and taxation will differ from the assumptions.
- Tax rules are simplified and do not cover every personal situation, treaty, or local tax.
- History does not guarantee future results, and newer asset classes such as cryptocurrencies have limited histories.
- A success rate is a property of the model and its inputs, not a certain probability about real life.
Methodology for the 2026 Runaway engine. Assumptions and sources evolve with the product.